Ron William

For most of 2022, the USD (DXY) king rocked, trending up by over 20%, defying gravity, sporting the equivalent of portfolio “blue suede shoes” – while other major assets collapsed! But market history teaches us that the strongest trends often give way to the greatest falls once they inevitably roll. In a previous analysis, I shared three early warnings that led to a sizeable bull-trap capitulation, notably; DeMark© price exhaustion signals, momentum divergences (Figure 1), coupled with overcrowded positioning. In historical terms, this latest USD rock ‘n’ roll market dance

Elevated market volatility and black swan event risk is already proving to scare most investors as we approach the ominous Halloween festivity. It is claimed to be influenced by Germanic and Celtic-speaking peoples commemorating the dead at the beginning of winter. Meanwhile, in financial markets, Halloween’s (late October) timing coincides with the aftermath of an infamous fall-crash pattern (Figure 1), which typically fuels a relief rally from oversold extremes. Halloween’s original philosophy of “commemorating the dead” also serves as a useful metaphor of the investor behavioural realities for mourning and overcoming portfolio loss,